As per the start of the weeks, The Watch List: Gold, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR crosses and many more, AUD/USD was highlighted in the following analysis:
AUD/USD, swing analysis
AUD/USD has formed a weekly W-formation for which a retracement to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci of the bullish impulse would be expected on the way to the neckline of the formation.
From here, the bears can monitor for 4-hour bearish conditions, with MACD needing to get below the zero line.
Live market analysis
However, the price has continued to run higher in a risk-on market environment:
In the above 1-hour chart, the price action since the prior analysis is displayed within the box.
When momentum finally slows, there will be scope for a 38.2% Fibo retracement to the neckline of the overextended W-formation on the hourly chart.
Should the support fail, then the price would be expected to deteriorate as per the prior analysis on the weekly chart:
Live market, weekly chart
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